“The Warsaw summit is of breakthrough significance. Our message to NATO from the very beginning was clear: in the face of the changing situation in the security environment in our part of the world, in Central and Eastern Europe it is necessary to strengthen the presence and potential of NATO,” President Andrzej Duda has said an interview ahead of a Warsaw summit of the military alliance. “We have said from the outset that there is a need to strengthen the Baltic states and strengthen Poland in these terms through the presence of NATO forces in nations in Central and Eastern Europe.”
Asked if four battalions of a thousand soldiers each in Poland and the Baltic countries would be enough to deter Russia, Duda said: “This is above all a clear signal what the intentions of the Alliance are. “It is above all a clear signal that the Alliance is tightly-knit, that the Alliance is effective, that the Alliance is able to make decisions and, above all, that it is cohesive, it is together, that it shows solidarity, that we are reacting to what is happening…
“One thing is the most important: that anyone who carries out an act of aggression on a country in which there are NATO troops will at the same time be carrying out an act of aggression on all countries.”
“The security situation in Europe has significantly deteriorated,” Mrs Angela Merkel told the German parliament. “Russia’s actions have deeply disturbed our eastern allies. They therefore require clear reassurance from the alliance.” NATO is expected to approve plans to send four combat battalions of around 1,000 troops to each of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia at the Warsaw summit. “If international law and the basic principle of the inviolability of borders are put in question by word and deed, then of course trust is lost,” Mrs Merkel said.
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Allied leaders will take key decisions to strengthen the Alliance’s defence and deterrence and project stability beyond NATO’s borders.
Since the Alliance’s last summit in September 2014 in Wales, NATO has implemented the biggest reinforcement of its collective defence since the Cold War. “We delivered a faster, a stronger, and a more ready Alliance”, Mr Stoltenberg told a press conference at NATO headquarters. “We now need to take the next steps. So at our Summit in Warsaw, we will agree to further enhance our military presence in the eastern part of the Alliance.”
The Secretary General said that Allied leaders will agree to deploy four robust, multinational battalions to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. Further efforts to strengthen the Alliance’s deterrence and defence include a tailored presence in the south-east, based on a multinational brigade in Romania and steps to improve cyber-defence, civil preparedness and the ability to defend against ballistic missile attacks.
The US wants other members in the alliance to share the burden of military spending. NATO wants its members to try to spend 2 percent of their GDP on defense. Many members will want to revise this system in Warsaw as it does not reflect the contribution of each country
Mr Stoltenberg said preparations for holding another meeting of the NATO-Russia Council shortly after the Warsaw Summit are ongoing. “We remain open to dialogue with Russia. The NATO-Russia Council has an important role to play as a forum for dialogue and information exchange, to reduce tensions and increase predictability,” Stoltenberg said.
Pope Francis spoke on the Armenian genocide and Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, as well as a host of other topics in a wide-ranging press conference on his flight back to Rome following his Apostolic Voyage to Armenia.
Sunday’s in-flight press conference began with questions about the Apostolic Voyage to Armenia that Pope Francis had just concluded.
Asked about his message for Armenia for the future, the Holy Father spoke about his hopes and prayers for justice and peace, and his encouragement that leaders are working to that end. In particular, he talked of the work of reconciliation with Turkey and with Azerbaijan. The Pope will be travelling to Azerbaijani later this year.
Pope Francis also spoke about his use of the word ‘genocide,’ acknowledging the legal import of the expression, but explaining that this was the term commonly in use in Argentina for the massacre of Armenians during the first World War.
About the Pan-Orthodox Council, which concluded Sunday in Crete, the Pope said, “A step was made forward . . . I think the result was positive.” In response to a question about upcoming commemorations of the 500th anniversary of the Protestant “Reformation,” Pope Francis said, “I think perhaps this is also the right moment for us not only to remember the wounds on both sides, but also to recognize the gifts of the Reformation.” He also had words of praise for Martin Luther. The Pope praying and working together are important for fostering unity.
Reporters also questioned the Pope about recent events, including the recent “Brexit” vote in Britain. He said he had not had time to study the reasons for the British vote to leave the European Union, but noted that the vote showed “divisions,” which could also be seen in other countries. “Fraternity is better, and bridges are better than walls,” he said, but he acknowledged that there are “different ways of unity.” Creativity and fruitfulness are two key words for the European Union as it faces new challenges.
Finally, answering a question from Father Federico Lombardi, SJ, the Director of the Holy See Press Office, Pope Francis reflected on his visit to the Memorial at Tzitzernakaberd, and his upcoming journey to Poland, which will include a visit to Auschwitz. The Pope said that in such places, he likes to reflect silently, “alone,” praying that the Lord might grant him “the grace of crying.”
Extract from the Vatican Radio.
Aleksander Lukashenko has won a fifth term as president of Belarus with a victory that could ease relations with the West and raise questions about his ties to Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
Lukashenko won 83.5% of the vote, the Central election commission said, 3.5% more than in the 2010 elections. Turnout was 86.75%, the commission added.
No veteran opposition leaders stood as they were not allowed to register. They said that the vote would not be free or fair. Dozens of opposition supporters held a protest march in the capital Minsk after the polls closed.
Relations with Moscow have shown signs of strain. In September, Vladimir Putin approved a plan to build an airbase in Belarus, but Lukashenko said his country had no need for such a base.
The EU will lift its sanctions on Belarus, including those on Lukashenko, for four months after the vote, diplomatic sources reported last week.
A Simferopoli la Procura generale ha confiscato le proprietà della Fondazione (non a scopo di lucro) “Krym”, il cui fondatore è il leader dei tatari di Crimea Mustafà Dzhemiliev, già deputato alla Rada ucraina. Il 16 settembre la sede dell’Autorità tatara era stata perquisita dalla polizia.
I tatari di Crimea non hanno partecipato in massa alle elezioni di domenica 14 settembre in cui sono stati eletti i nuovi rappresentanti locali. Il prossimo capo della Crimea Serghei Aksionov ha negato che ci siano problemi con questa minoranza, che è contraria al ritorno della penisola sotto il controllo di Mosca. La ragione della perquisizione all’Autorità tatara, secondo Aksionov, era la presunta “presenza di letteratura vietata”.
Mustafà Dzhemiliev, a cui non è permesso l’ingresso in Crimea e sul territorio russo per 5 anni, ha definito quanto finora accaduto come “un attacco criminale”. Le ambasciate USA e turca hanno già espresso la loro “preoccupazione” e stanno seguendo da vicino l’evolversi della situazione.
Secondo fonti militari ucraine il Cremlino ha dislocato al confine amministrativo tra la penisola contesa e la terraferma 4mila uomini con a disposizione artiglieria e carri armati.
La guerra civile in Ucraina orientale si avvia a diventare nei prossimi mesi un conflitto dimenticato, mentre i leader internazionali – a parole – continuano a litigare. Dopo la tregua sancita il 5 settembre 2014 a Minsk gli scontri sono diminuiti di intensità, ma si muore lo stesso. Secondo alcuni calcoli dall’inizio del cessate il fuoco hanno perso la vita già una trentina di persone.
Gli epicentri dei combattimenti sono sul mare di Azov tra Mariupol e Novoazovsk – gli abitanti del centro portuale odono i colpi in lontananza – e nei pressi dell’aeroporto di Donetsk, ancora nelle mani dei governativi. A Gorlovka l’ordine pubblico è precario. A Lugansk l’elettricità manca in alcuni quartieri dopo che una centrale è stata centrata da un colpo di mortaio.
Secondo l’Agenzia per gli affari umanitari dell’Onu all’11 settembre 2014 sono morte 3.171 persone (tra cui 27 bambini), 8.061 (non meno di 56 bambini) sono i feriti. OHCHR/WHO. Gli sfollati in Patria sono 262.977, quelli all’estero 366.866.
“E’ stato l’ultimo addio all’Unione Sovietica”. Così il presidente ucraino Petro Poroshenko in un discorso al Parlamento canadese, prima di volare a Washington dal collega statunitense Barack Obama. La ratifica del Patto di Associazione con l’Unione europea è per Kiev il passo decisivo verso un futuro diverso.
I separatisti dell’Est non sono d’accordo ed insistono per l’indipendenza nonostante la maggiore autonomia ottenuta sulla carta. Le elezioni locali, programmate per il 7 dicembre, dovrebbero essere un nuovo spartiacque nelle intenzioni del governo centrale. Il dubbio è, però, se queste consultazioni si terranno mai.
In Russia, intanto, la situazione economica inizia a preoccupare. Il dollaro e l’euro hanno segnato nuovi record contro il rublo anche per il deprezzamento sensibile del petrolio sui mercati internazionali. 105 è il valore minimo per Mosca per salvare il proprio budget statale. “No al panico”, è la parola d’ordine.
Мирный план Порошенко имеет 14 пунктов, в которых указано следующее:
1. Гарантии безопасности для всех участников переговоров.
2. Освобождение от уголовной ответственности тех, кто сложил оружие и не совершил тяжких преступлений.
3. Освобождение заложников.
4. Создание 10 км буферной зоны на украинско-российской государственной границе. Вывод незаконных вооруженных формирований.
5. Гарантированный коридор для выхода российских и украинских наемников.
6. Разоружение.
7. Создание в структуре МВД подразделений для осуществления совместного патрулирования.
8. Освобождения незаконно удерживаемых административных зданий в Донецкой и Луганской областях.
9. Возобновление деятельности местных органов власти.
10. Обновления центрального теле- и радиовещания в Донецкой и Луганской областях.
11. Децентрализация власти (путем избрания исполкомов, защита русского языка – проект изменений Конституции).
12. Согласование губернаторов до выборов с представителями Донбасса (при условии согласования единой кандидатуры, при разногласиях – решение принимает Президент).
13. Досрочные местные и парламентские выборы.
14 Программа создания рабочих мест в регионе.
A Minsk Ucraina, Russia ed OSCE hanno siglato un’intesa per il cessate il fuoco. L’obiettivo finale è quello di realizzare un piano di pace in 14 punti. I rappresentanti dei separatisti filo-russi erano presenti con uno status simile a qualcosa come osservatori. Kiev non ha così avuto necessità di riconoscerli formalmente.
PIANO PACE Poroshenko
Il tempo delle operazioni militari sta finendo per l’avvicinarsi dell’inverno; è venuta l’ora di una tregua fra gli ucraini; Mosca si prepari ad un serio negoziato.
È questo il messaggio recapitato a Kiev personalmente da Angela Merkel prima del summit a Minsk tra europei ed ex sovietici. In estrema sintesi, le parti in causa facciano un passo indietro e diano una chance alla pace. I presidenti russo Putin e ucraino Poroshenko avranno l’occasione di parlarsi a quattr’occhi o alla presenza di mediatori. Che sfruttino l’occasione!
La cancelliera tedesca è stata chiarissima. Primo: l’Ucraina ha bisogno di “decentralizzare i poteri dello Stato” in modo da fornire garanzie alle regioni dell’Est, popolate da una maggioranza russofona. Secondo: Berlino e l’Unione europea doneranno “500 milioni di euro per l’immediata ricostruzione”. Terzo: non verrà riconosciuta l’annessione della Crimea da parte del Cremlino. Quarto: se la situazione non migliorerà rapidamente “non sono escluse nuove sanzioni” contro la Russia, alla quale non verranno fatte concessioni, poiché la crisi è troppo pericolosa. Nelle settimane passate la Merkel ha definito Putin un uomo che vive “in un altro mondo”.
Berlino è in realtà preoccupata che con l’approssimarsi della stagione fredda Mosca possa iniziare a giocare con le forniture del gas. L’Unione europea dipende per un 30% circa del suo fabbisogno dalla russa Gazprom. Approssimativamente l’80% di questi approvvigionamenti transitano in Ucraina. Per ora le reazioni anti-occidentali del Cremlino sono state spuntate e ad uso della propaganda interna.
Sul piano militare i governativi di Kiev hanno riconquistato gran parte delle due regioni ribelli, costringendo i separatisti ad asserragliarsi nelle tre città di Donetsk, Gorlovka e Lugansk. Non riescono per ora solo a sigillare la frontiera per evitare l’arrivo di uomini freschi e armi in soccorso.
Kiev non pare, tuttavia, avere unità speciali sufficienti per snidare in fretta nei centri urbani quelle poche migliaia di guerriglieri delle due Repubbliche popolari presenti.
E il tempo, adesso, gioca contro di lei: l’autunno e il rigido inverno sono alle porte. Gran parte della popolazione è fuggita dalle zone del conflitto: la sua stragrande maggioranza è ospite di parenti o amici; in percentuale in pochi sono nei campi profughi. Le vacanze, forzatamente cominciate a giugno, devono finire, anche perché i soldi iniziano a scarseggiare.
La gente, sia a Lugansk che a Donetsk, non ne può più: vuole la fine della guerra civile. I pochi che avevano dimostrato supporto per i separatisti, si sono diradati. I ribelli stanno distruggendo le infrastrutture per provocare una crisi umanitaria, che, per il momento, non esiste a Donetsk, ma si intravede a Lugansk città. Quella è una delle poche carte restate loro in mano.
A Minsk, in conclusione, vi sarà il tentativo di trovare una soluzione, facendo uscire tutti dalla crisi con la faccia pulita…o quasi.
Giuseppe D’Amato
THE obscure provincial leader was at first sight an unlikely choice to be foreign minister of the world’s largest country. Eduard Shevardnadze did not even want the job: he spoke only his native Georgian and heavily accented Russian, had no important foreign contacts, and had barely travelled abroad. But Mikhail Gorbachev was immovable. The new Soviet leader wanted big changes—and the “Silver Fox”, his friend since the 1950s, to make them….
Article The Economist.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Brussels signed the Association Agreement with the European Union. The signing is a milestone. Whether history records June 27 as Ukraine’s “most important day” since it regained independence in 1991—as Mr. Poroshenko suggested—remains to be seen. Much depends on implementation of the agreement.
The economic pact comes months after deadly protests broke out this winter when then-Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych — ousted by demonstrators in February — decided not to sign the trade deal under pressure from Moscow.
Georgia and Moldova also signed association agreements with the EU in a move opposed by Russia. Georgia has already lost chunks of its territory and Black Sea coast to rebels backed by Russia after a brief war with Russia in 2008.
“There will undoubtedly be serious consequences for Ukraine and Moldova’s signing,” Grigory Karasin, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, said.
The Association Agreement can be a game-changer for Ukraine. It includes a deep and comprehensive free trade arrangement (DCFTA) that will open much of the European market to Ukrainian exports. Implementation of the agreement will not only bring Ukraine’s trade and customs rules into conformity with EU standards, it will help the country draw closer to EU democratic norms and “Europeanize” other Ukrainian regulatory regimes.
The Association Agreement lacks a membership perspective
For the European Union, signature of the association agreement with Ukraine (as well as signature of similar pacts with Georgia and Moldova) represents a significant step forward in its Eastern Partnership policy.
For the Kremlin, signature of the Ukraine-EU association agreement represents a setback. Vladimir Putin last December offered $15 billion in loans, with no overt strings attached, and a huge gas price cut to turn Ukraine away from signing.
We are a group of long experienced European journalists and intellectuals interested in international politics and culture. We would like to exchange our opinion on new Europe and Russia.