Energy&Economy


LATEST  DATA – December 2010.

 GDP in 2009 + 1.7%. Poland was the  only European Union country to have avoided recession.  In 2010 the growth will be of 3.5% – Central Statistical Office (GUS).

 The main driving force behind the economy in the second quarter of 2010 was domestic demand, according to the the National Bank of Poland (NBP). The Economy Ministry expects that economic growth will continue to stimulate activity in the industrial and construction sectors. The data shows that the Polish economy is growing faster than the economies of other EU countries except Slovakia (4.1%). The EU Commission’s view is that the Polish economy is driven by manufacturing and exports. The World Bank has recently raised its forecast of Polish GDP to 4.1% in 2011.

 Poland’s image has improved as a result of the global financial crisis. The total value of new foreign direct investment in the first half of 2010 exceeded 5 billion euros and was 75% higher than a year earlier, according to NBP data. In the first half of 2010, the Polish Information and Foreign Investment Agency (PAIiIZ) successfully completed negotiations with foreign investors on 29 new investment projects.

Big privatization projects (2010 – 2013)

Government’s financial plan foresees zl.55 billion (13,5 billion euros) to be made. From the first IPOs the sum got is zl.25 billion.

LATEST DATA – December 10 th – 17th, 2010

Vladimir Putin, from interview with the nation December 17th, 2010.

GDP – showed growth of 3,8%, indicating a positive trend. A rise in production by the end of 2010 amount to 8,5-8,6%. Russians’ real incomes in 2010 rose by 2 percent a year, but real wages – by 4.2%, pensions – by 44.9%. This past year has created 1 million 200 thousand new jobs, the economy will come pre-crisis level in the first half of 2012.

Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin.

Assuming an oil price of $75 per barrel, Russia would have a deficit of 4.6 percent of gross domestic product, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said, while in 2007 — when oil averaged $70 — the country had a 5 percent surplus. “That means we’ve really done some serious back-stepping from the principles of fiscal balance,” he added, Interfax reported.

With state debt of less than 11 percent, Russia will be able to handle any fiscal challenges in 2011, Kudrin said.

The volume of incoming revenues to the federal budget in January – November 2010 amounted to 7 trillion 432.365 billion roubles, expenses – 8 trillion 343.865 billion roubles, the Finance Ministry said in a statement.
Cash budget deficit for 11 months of 2010 amounted to 911.501 billion roubles, or 2.2% of GDP, primary deficit – 724.564 billion roubles (1.8% of GDP).

According to Sergey Ignatiev, head of the Russian Central Bank, in November, 2010, the capital outflow from Russia amounted to 9 billion dollars. Since the beginning of the year this value reached 29 billion dollars.

In November inflation has grown 8.4% since the beginning of the year, fueled by a crippling summer drought that drove food prices higher.

Moscow.

Sergei Pakhomov, acting head of Moscow‘s debt committee, said that the city could sell 500 million euros ($611 million) of debt to international investors in 2011 if conditions are favourable, Bloomberg reported.

South Stream, memorandum 23.06.2007

 

 Non si confonda il gossip e l’invidia di alleati probabilmente gelosi con i sacri interessi nazionali. Il rapporto con la Russia è quanto di più bipartisan ci sia stato nella politica italiana del dopo crollo dell’Urss. La personalizzazione, impressa dal premier Berlusconi, ha consolidato relazioni che hanno radici storiche. Senza andare troppo in là basta ricordare i legami diretti col Pcus del maggiore Partito comunista dell’Europa occidentale e gli affari stretti in epoca sovietica. 

 Fu la Fiat ad essere scelta nel maggio ‘66 a Togliattigrad per costruire le automobili per il popolo. E fu Enrico Mattei in precedenza ad aprire quel mercato, apparentemente così lontano ed irraggiungibile. Le nostre aziende, affamate di idrocarburi, si affrancavano così in parte dal potere dalle “Sette sorelle”.    

 Nel marzo 2007 è stato il governo Prodi a definire con l’allora presidente Putin uno dei più importanti (di sempre!) pacchetti di accordi su energia ed infrastrutture, per non parlare della produzione del Superjet 100. Agli inizi del mese successivo l’Eni e l’Enel acquistavano all’asta per 5,8 miliardi di dollari alcuni dei più contestati asset della Yukos, la compagnia petrolifera dell’oligarca Michail Khodorkovskij, oggi in prigione, dietro il quale si nascondevano – secondo gli specialisti – finanziatori americani di Wall Street. In uno dei messaggi, pubblicati da WikiLeaks, si fa menzione degli “scambi di favori” tra Gazprom e le società italiane, che successivamente hanno rivenduto in parte quegli asset, levando le castagna dal fuoco ai russi ed evitando loro grane legali internazionali.    

 Ma gli italiani sono con i tedeschi i fidati alleati strategici del Cremlino nelle infrastrutture con i francesi che tentano in tutti i modi di infilarsi nella partita. Soltanto i nostri tecnici, fiore all’occhiello di un Paese in perenne crisi isterica, sono riusciti a costruire pipeline ultratecnologiche sottomarine uniche al mondo. Il russo-tedesco “Nord Stream” sotto al Baltico è stato affidato nella sua fase esecutiva ad un’impresa nostrana. Parallelamente l’Eni gestisce il “South Stream”, analogo gasdotto sotto al Mar Nero, in concorrenza con il “Nabucco di ispirazione americana e degli europei filo-Usa. L’obiettivo finale è di rendere l’Italia un “hub” del gas nel Vecchio continente, realizzando il progetto di indipendenza energetica di Mattei.    

 Il segreto di questa politica bipartisan sta nella Commissione bilaterale intergovernativa, nella sapienza del gruppo dirigente dell’Eni e nei forum degli imprenditori, l’ultimo dei quali si è tenuto pochi giorni fa. Sono loro che suggeriscono idee e proposte.    

 L’Esecutivo Berlusconi, ironia della sorte, è quello che negli ultimi anni ha maggiormente differenziato le fonti di approvvigionamento ed ha ridotto la nostra dipendenza energetica dalla Russia: oggi, certificano enti indipendenti, 33% da Mosca e 32% dall’Algeria. I meriti del Presidente del Consiglio nell’aver aperto il mercato dell’ex superpotenza alle aziende italiane sono davvero tanti dopo l’inconcludenza dei nostri manager negli anni Novanta. Forse ci si è dimenticati troppo in fretta del mancato accordo della Fiat nel 1998 con la Gaz?    

 Per i russi l’Italia è un punto di riferimento in numerosi campi. Non è un caso che il filmato di presentazione a Zurigo dei Mondiali di calcio del 2018 mostri un ragazzo, Sascia, con indosso la maglietta della Russia, che tenta di fare un goal ai “maestri” azzurri del Bel Paese. Il sogno di quell’adolescente di vedere i campioni negli stadi di casa si è realizzato, mentre per noi quello di Enrico Mattei rimane a portata di mano.   

Giuseppe D’Amato

Confident for the euro, Russia and Europe may join single currency someday in the future. Mr. Vladimir Putin took part in the German – Russian summit in Berlin. The euro has proven itself “a stable world currency,” Russian Prime Minister said. “We have to get away from the overwhelming dollar monopoly. It makes the world economy vulnerable,” Putin added. Earlier in a letter edited by a German newspaper the former President wrote “We should be frank about it: The global economic crisis has revealed both Russia and the EU to be economically very vulnerable.” Mr. Putin suggested to create a free-trade zone.

Mrs. Angela Merkel called that a “vision for the future,” and stressed the need for close economic cooperation as a first step. “But the closer our economies are linked, the easier and the more interesting it will be to adjust also the currency policy,” the German Chancellor said. In the meantime, Mrs. Merkel added, Moscow had to conclude talks to join the W.T.O. Russia, which opened its bid to join the WTO in 1993, is the last major world power not a member of the Geneva-based global trade body.

Mr. Putin expressed criticism to the Third Energy Package. Agreed in 2009, it was designed to liberalize the EU’s energy markets by separating the production and distribution networks of large energy companies to foster more competition. The other element of the package allowed smaller energy companies access to the grids, which had been blocked by the big companies. “Our companies, together with German partners, legally acquired distribution assets in Lithuania,” Mr. Putin said. “Now they are being thrown out there with reference to the Third Energy Package. What is this then? What is this robbery?”

 Europe needs a new strategy for energy. The narrow interests of national capitals prevailed too long. EU leaders will be asked to support a plan for unity at the first EU energy summit on February 2011. These are the main points in European Union Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger’s programme unveiled in Brussels. According to his remarks the Twenty-seven have to invest 1 trillion euros  over the next decade in a shared EU energy network.

 The International Energy Agency forecasted global oil supplies would peak around 2035, when oil prices would exceed $200 a barrel, kicking off a scramble for alternative energy sources. “To have an efficient, competitive and low-carbon economy, we have to Europeanize our energy policy and focus on a few, but pressing, priorities,” Oettinger said. The idea of uniting Europe’s infrastructure is not new, nor is that of liberalizing the markets for the gas and electricity that flow through it.

 Article –  Deutsche Welle – November 2010.

 Российская “Транснефть” заявила, что больше не нуждается в нефтепроводах “Одесса-Броды” и “Дружба”. С 2011 года компания сможет прокачивать нефть по альтернативным направлениям за пределами Украины и Белоруссии. По его словам первого вице-президента АК “Транснефть” Михаила Арустамова, Россия активно использовала маршруты “Броды-Одесса” и “Броды-Южный”, когда у нее был недостаток экспортных мощностей. Но в результате введения в эксплуатацию трубопроводной системы “Восточная Сибирь-Тихий океан” этот дефицит резко сократился.

 СтатьяКоммерсант Украйна 11.11.2010 г.

От Коммерсанта

«Магистральный нефтепровод Одесса–Броды построен в 2001 году для транспортировки каспийской нефти. Украина в течение двух лет безуспешно пыталась договориться о транспортировке по нему каспийской нефти в прямом направлении. Не получив предложений со стороны компаний, добывающих нефть в Казахстане, Кабмин в конце июня 2004 года разрешил использовать трубопровод для транспортировки российской нефти в реверсном режиме. Мощность трубопровода составляет 9 млн т.» 

 Prime Minister Donald Tusk campaigned in 2007 on expediting privatization, even before the crisis hit, and the revenues from the sales, which were planned to be held from 2008 to 2011, are now helping the country cover a budget deficit that could grow to 8 percent of GDP this year, Tusk admitted this month.

 Growth in the country has unfortunately not meant stable public finances, then, as the government has, for the moment, relied on the privatization of more than 800 companies to cover costs. Compared with countries like the Czech Republic and Germany, Poland has not adopted austerity measures, preferring instead to continue feeding growth.

 The privatization plan is expected to generate 25 billion złoty (6.4 billion euros) over four years.

  Article – The Prague Post – October 2010.

 The gas giant Gazprom may soon create an energy hub in Far East to feed growing demand in Asia. The Russian monopolist is facing tough competition in Europe and is trying to gain a bigger share on exports to China.

 According to materials on the region’s investment plans, Gazprom “may build an LNG facility to process 26 billion cubic meters a year of gas (about 18 million metric tons of LNG). The plant, which may be built by 2015, may cost 720 billion roubles ($24.2 billion). A compressed natural gas, or CNG, plant is also being considered.”

Article – Bloomberg – October 2010.

Efforts by some countries to weaken their currencies to stimulate growth are “especially worrying,” Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting in Washington. International policymakers failed to narrow their differences and Brazil warned that a “currency war” was under way. While the United States criticized China for undervaluing the yuan, officials from emerging nations blamed low U.S. interest rates for flooding them with capital. Global economic recovery is significantly slowing as the effect of anti-crisis stimulus measures. A further slowing of economic growth in the second half of 2010 and 2011 is a cause for concern shared by many experts.

The BRIC countries “have agreed on a position that exchange rates aren’t themselves a problem,” Deputy Finance Minister Dmitry Pankin said. “Rather, they are a consequence of deeper processes, such as tendencies to save, to invest, of the investment climate.” Capital “fluctuations” may also pose a risk for Russia, Pankin added.

 After the IMF meeting the first measure taken by Moscow was to move away from managing the rouble toward a free-float. The Central Bank widened the so-called floating corridor it uses to guide the national currency against a basket of dollars and euros and abolished a wider band set during the credit crisis to “increase flexibility” of the exchange rate. This decision potentially allows for more volatility but gives the bank the ability to target inflation rather than the exchange rate.

“The more flexible rate of the rouble is not linked to any kind of devaluation race but rather is aimed at minimising or eliminating the use of interventions by the Central bank,” Alexei Kudrin explained. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said that the rouble was in an “optimal position” and that he didn’t expect the currency to weaken or strengthen “excessively.” The rouble’s value was a major concern for the government and ordinary Russians at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis as it tumbled to lows that raised the spectre of Russia’s 1998 financial meltdown.

According to Kudrin, to ensure stable growth in 2011 Russia needs oil prices above $60 per barrel, although the country’s economy is less vulnerable than those of developed markets. This level is 21 percent less than this year’s average price. The Urals blend, Russia’s benchmark for oil exports, has risen 7.3 percent to $82.31 per barrel this year. It averaged $76.08 during the period and dropped to a low of $67.31 on May 25, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Russia is less vulnerable than other countries,” Kudrin told journalists. “Developing economies are as a whole better off, have more optimistic outlook.” However, substantial uncertainty remains and that if the situation in developed countries deteriorates it would hurt emerging markets. “This would impact energy producers, metal producers, trade, capital outflows,” said Russian Finance Minister.

Moscow feels safe. Reserves jumped $6.7 billion to $501.1 billion, the Russian Central bank said. It’s the first time the reserves have broken $500 billion since mid-October 2008, a month after the collapse of U.S. brokerage Lehman Brothers triggered the global credit crisis. Russia reduced its reserves from a record $598.1 billion at the beginning of August 2008 to $376.1 billion in March 2009, the lowest since at least January 2008. The Central Bank buys and sells foreign currency to manage the rouble and prevent swings that hurt exporters and used the reserves to engineer a “gradual devaluation” of the currency between November 2008 and the end of January 2009, as the global economic crisis and credit crunch hit.

Officially Euros account for 41 percent of Russia’s reserves, while dollars constitute 47 percent, British pounds — 10 percent, Japanese yen — 2 percent, along with a small amount of Swiss francs. Only China and Japan have larger reserves than Russia.

 La partita di calcio di Genova per le qualificazioni ad Euro-2012 di Polonia ed Ucraina ha offerto un palcoscenico insperato agli ultra – nazionalisti serbi. Nell’arco di qualche settimana le autorità di Belgrado – che dal 25 ottobre guideranno un Paese candidato all’adesione all’Unione europea – e quelle kosovare apriranno una trattativa sotto l’egida di Bruxelles. Il viaggio del segretario Usa Hillary Clinton nella regione è servito a definire gli ultimi particolari e a ribadire che Washington sostiene questa iniziativa.

 Ma “non riconosceremo l’indipendenza del Kosovo”, ha subito messo in chiaro il presidente serbo Tadic all’emissario di Obama. I kosovari rispondono di essere pronti a sedersi ad un tavolo solo per definire alcune “questioni tecniche”. La cosa importante è che le due parti in conflitto si incontrino. “Anche se ci saranno presto qui le elezioni presidenziali – ha sottolineato a Pristina il capo della diplomazia Usa – si deve incominciare a parlare e soprattutto a produrre dei risultati”. Il premier Thaci ha evidenziato che è tempo che serbi e kosovari “terminino un conflitto vecchio di un secolo”.

 In precedenza la Clinton era stata in Bosnia, dove ha invitato le tre comunità etniche – musulmana, croata e serba – a superare le divisioni e a non rischiare di perdere l’occasione di aderire all’Unione europea ed alla Nato. “Non accettate lo status quo – ha detto la Clinton – non ritiratevi nelle vostre comunità”. Dalle elezioni generali di inizio ottobre il Paese è uscito piegato su sé stesso e nelle mani dei nazionalisti.

 Dopo gli accordi di Dayton del ’95, che hanno fatto seguito a 3 anni di guerra con 100mila morti, sono nate la federazione croata-musulmana e la repubblica serba di Bosnia. Il segretario di Stato Usa ha incontrato il nuovo leader serbo locale Dodik, che spinge per la secessione.

 L’integrazione europea sia in Serbia che in Bosnia o Kosovo è la promessa in cambio di concessioni ai vecchi nemici ed al raggiungimento della completa pacificazione della regione. Il problema è, però, capire quanto l’Ue sia pronta ad accettare altri membri, che hanno così grandi questioni aperte alle spalle. La delusione per gli scarsi progressi mostrati da Romania e Bulgaria dopo la loro adesione all’Unione potrebbe essere un ostacolo. La domanda su che cosa sia l’Ue resta senza risposta: un futuro super-Stato o uno spazio economico, democratico e giuridico comune? La sensazione è che qualcuno oltreoceano definisca priorità altrui.

 Sullo sfondo nei Balcani si scorge la lotta per il controllo dei corridoi orientali dell’energia con i progetti russo-italiano “South Streamed euro-americano “Nabucco” (che salta la Russia) in concorrenza. Washington ha investito nell’economia serba dal 2001 quasi un miliardo di dollari in aiuti. La Clinton l’ha probabilmente ricordato a Tadic. Gli investimenti stranieri a Belgrado si aggirano sui 15 miliardi con gli italiani in prima fila (Fiat, Eni, Finmeccanica, Omsa).

 Gli ultra-nazionalisti serbi, legati ad un passato nostalgico, non vogliono dire addio definitivamente al Kosovo, considerato come loro culla. Tutta questa occidentalizzazione del Paese viene vista con il fumo negli occhi. La Jugoslavia non c’è più. Resiste soltanto un universo balcanico comune, una “Jugosfera“, neologismo coniato dal settimanale britannico Economist, un’area commerciale e industriale dove i popoli ex jugoslavi hanno deposto le armi e ripreso a cooperare.

 Come sia stato possibile che a Roma non si siano resi conto del pericolo della partita Genova lascia sorpresi. Il risultato è stato che le società civili dei due Paesi sono state sconfitte da un’orda composta da soltanto un centinaio di imbecilli.
Giuseppe D’Amato

Serbia at a historic crossroads: the European integration in exchange for waiving Kosovo. The U.S. as a sponsor. 

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