Archive for October, 2010


 Un musulmano ed un croato, entrambi moderati, compartiranno insieme ad un falco serbo la presidenza tripartita della Bosnia Erzegovina.  Bakir Izetbegović, figlio del leader musulmano Alija durante la guerra negli anni Novanta, ha già offerto il proprio impegno per una ricerca comune di pace e stabilità. Sulla stessa linea anche Željko Komšić. Ma come ribadito durante la campagna elettorale per le elezioni generali i serbi pensano più alla secessione che al rafforzamento dello Stato. Nebojša Radmanović esprime, però, una posizione meno dura rispetto a quella del premier Milorad Dodik, che ha definito la Bosnia Erzegovnia come un errore della storia e prevede la sua scomparsa nell’arco di qualche anno.

 Gli osservatori internazionali sono rimasti sorpresi dall’inusuale alto numero di schede annullate tra i serbi, quasi il 10% del totale. L’Osce chiede l’apertura di un’inchiesta. Da più parti si levano accuse di brogli.

 L’attuale Bosnia Erzegovina è nata con gli accordi di Dayton del 1995, che posero fine a tra anni e mezzo di guerra con 100mila morti. E’ stata creata una presidenza tripartita per rappresentare i principali gruppi etnici. La popolazione è divisa tra Federazione croato-bosniaca e Republika Srpska. Il sistema politico è straordinariamente complesso. Gli elettori scelgono i rappresentanti soltanto delle proprie entità. Ossia un residente della Republika Srpska non elegge i membri del Assamblea della Federazione di bosniaca, e viceversa. Nei 14 Parlamenti del Paese vi sono 5 presidenti, 13 primi ministri e 700 deputati per una popolazione di appena 4 milioni di persone.

 Il compito dei tre presidenti eletti è assai impegnativo. La crisi economica è pesante (2010, crescita del Pil del +0,5%) e la disoccupazione supera il 40% della forza lavoro. La giungla burocratica viene additata come causa principale della difficoltà per i privati di iniziare proprie attività produttive. Gli obiettivi di aderire all’Unione europea ed alla Nato restano lontani. La pace e la stabilità sono garantite da truppe straniere.

 Bruxelles ha esortato i vincitori delle elezioni di domenica a dimenticare le differenze etniche ed a rilanciare le riforme, che potrebbero rafforzare l’integrazione continentale e garantire un futuro alla popolazione locale. Lo scenario peggiore sarebbe un referendum per la secessione dei serbi o una serie di incidenti che provocarebbero un nuovo conflitto armato.

The modernization process in Ukraine will take place within three areas, stated the Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine, Borys Kolesnikov. The first direction presupposes business infrastructure development in Eastern Ukraine including modernization of airports and construction of high capacity runways as well as construction of exhibition centres and conference centres up to the world standard.

The second direction will comprise the development of agriculture in Central Ukraine. The government is determined to increase the volumes of corn growing virtually twofold, up to 100 million tons per year, by means of offering economic incentives in the agricultural sector.

Finally, the third direction will cover the tourist infrastructure development in Western Ukraine and Crimea.

 Targeted modernization projects will also contribute to radical changes in the vital for the country areas, said Vladyslav Kaskiv, the Head of the Working Group for National Projects of the Committee on Economic Reforms. Their range is rather broad: from the creation of a transmission system for liquefied gas up to providing the new generation of Ukrainian schoolchildren with Internet access. Contrary to the Russian approach, the Ukrainian projects will be implemented not at the expense of the state funds but according to business models at the expense of the private investors.

 YES, Yalta, October 2nd, 2010.

Aleksander Kwasniewski, former President of Poland and the Chairman of the YES Board. “You must have a clear picture what role you want to play in this globalised and versatile world. This should change your approach and the way you view things. Globalisation is a process we are not able to stop. We are tightly intertwined with it”.

1. The choice between the West and the East is not so important for Ukraine. “Every Ukrainian president has to find balance between Russia and the EU. The complication is what kind of balance should it be, how to define and describe it”.

 2. Ukraine and Ukrainians must believe in their own strength and not to reject European prospects, because euro-integration of Ukraine is an objective demand of our time. “Ukrainians have to believe in their own power and future, because you have potential. We can discuss whether we need Turkey in EU for a long time. But at some moment we will ask the Turks to join the European Union. So, eventually the time will come when we will ask you, Ukrainians, to join the EU. we need you”.

At the same time this doesn’t calls off the need for reforms Ukraine must go through: “We have a lot of work to do. One has to solve problems and fulfill commitments. What is of great importance – you need to create civil society. You need nation’s activity, intelligent voter and intelligent electorate, which control the system and vote consciously”

 YES, Yalta, October 2nd, 2010.

«Китай вышел на первое место в мире по темпам экономического роста. Россия могла бы повторить ее успех, если бы развивала научно-технический потенциал страны. Однако власти выбрали более простой путь – опору на экспорт сырья.

 Особую гордость у китайских специалистов вызывает тот факт, что высокие темпы роста ВВП удалось поддержать, несмотря даже на негативное влияние мирового финансового кризиса и на серьезные стихийные бедствия. Большинство независимых экспертов отмечают, что, с одной стороны, наращивание Китаем экономической мощи положительно для России.

 Однако, с другой стороны, рост китайского спроса на российское сырье еще больше усугубит национальную болезнь России – зависимость от экспорта природных ресурсов».

 Статья – Анастасия Башкатова – Независимая газета

7th Yalta Annual Meeting – September 30 — October 3, 2010 Livadia Palace, Yalta, Ukraine

Ukraine and the World: Re-Thinking and Moving On

 Thursday, September 30

20:30 Welcome Reception

 

Friday, October 1

09:00 — 09:30 Conference Opening
   
Welcoming remarks:
Aleksander Kwasniewski, President of Poland (1995-2005), Chairman of the Board of YES
Victor Pinchuk, Founder and Member of the Board of YES
   
Moderator:
Chrystia Freeland, Global Editor-at-Large, Reuters News

 

09:30 — 10:15 Ukraine in a Changing World
   
Viktor Yanukovych, President of Ukraine

 

10:15 — 11:00 Europe’s Future in a Time of Challenges
   
Bronislaw Komorowski, President of the Republic of Poland

 

11:30 — 12:40 The New Global Order and Its Key Players
   
Stefan Füle, European Commissioner for Enlargement and Neighborhood Policy (opening remarks)
Alexander Babakov, Deputy Speaker, State Duma of the Russian Federation
Kostyantyn Gryshchenko, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine
Javier Solana, fmr. High Representative of the EU for Common Foreign and Security Policy, Member of the Board of YES
Wang Jisi, Dean, School of International Studies, Peking University

 

12:40 — 13:00 Euro 2012 — A Chance for Business to Contribute to Ukraine’s Modernisation: Kharkiv as a Case Study
   
Alexander Yaroslavskiy, General investor and coordinator of Kharkov for Euro 2012, Owner and President of DCH, President of FC Metalist

 

14:20 — 15:30 The Crisis and Economic Re-Building
   
Alexei Kudrin, Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation (opening remarks)
Iryna Akimova, First Deputy Head, Administration of the President of Ukraine
Anders Aslund, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Olivier Descamps, Managing Director, Turkey, Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia, EBRD
Andrey Kostin, President, VTB Bank

 

15:30 — 16.00 What Happened to Our Economies and How To Avoid It Happening Again? (TV Link)
   
Martin Wolf, Columnist, Financial Times and Fred Bergsten, Director, Peterson Institute of International Economics

 

16:00 — 17:00 Climate Change — A Global Threat Ignored in Ukraine
   
Kofi Annan (opening speaker, via TV link)
Inger Andersen, Vice President for Sustainable Development, World Bank
Nikolai Dronin, Moscow State University
Andriy Klyuev, First Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine
Joschka Fischer, Adviser, Nabucco Project

 

17:00 — 17:30 How to Overcome the Crisis and Build Sustainable Economies (TV Link)
   
Larry Summers, Director, National Economic Council of the United States

 

20:00 — 20:45 Speech: The United States and the Global Shifts of the 21st Century
   
William J. Clinton, 42nd President of the United States

 

Saturday, October 2

09:00 — 10:00 The Global Economy and Ukraine
   
Mykola Azarov, Prime Minister of Ukraine
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

 

10:30 — 11:15 Building High-Tech Economies — an Eastern Silicon Valley and Wall Street?
   
Viktor Vekselberg, Chairman, Renova Group; Coordinator, International Innovation Center “Skolkovo”
Alexander Voloshin, Head of the Working Group on Creating an International Financial Center in the Russian Federation

 

11:15 — 12:00 Modernising Ukraine — From Strategy to Implementation
   
Borys Kolesnikov, Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine
Vladislav Kaskiv, Head of Working Group for National Projects, Committee on Economic Reforms
Kirill Dmitriev, President, ICON Private Equity

 

12:00 — 13:00 Ukraine: Should it Move East And/Or West?
   
Elmar Brok, MEP, Foreign Policy Spokesman of the EPP in the European Parliament
Sergei Glaziev, Secretary General, EurAsEc Customs Union Commission
Leonid Kuchma, President of Ukraine (1994-2005)
Marek Siwiec, MEP, Member of the Board of YES

 

15:00 — 16:00 The Energy Challenge
   
Yuri Boyko, Minister for Fuel and Energy of Ukraine
Leonid Grigoriev, President, Institute for Energy and Finance, Moscow
Alan Riley, Professor, City University of London

 

16:00 — 17:00 Paths to Ukraine’s Future — What Change Do We Need?
Carl Bild, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sweden
Volodymyr Lytvyn, Speaker of the Parliament of Ukraine
Serhiy Tyhypko, Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine
Arsenyi Yatseniuk, MP, Leader of “Front of Change”

 

17:00 — 17:30 Concluding Session
   
Aleksander Kwasniewski, President of Poland (1995-2005), Chairman of the Board of YES

 

Video 1, Video 2.

Еще летом официальные представители «Газпрома» говорили о том, что в 2011 году стоимость газа для Беларуси составит 250 долларов США за тыс куб. м., что на 67 процентов больше цены, по которой «Белтрансгаз» оплачивает газ в 2010 году. Однако 22 сентября посол РФ в Беларуси А. Суриков заявил журналистам, что цена на природный газ для нашей страны в 2011 году может увеличиться лишь на 10% в сравнении с текущим годом. Перейдет ли в следующем году Беларусь на европейские цены за газ? Удастся ли сторонам избежать нового газового конфликта?

Статья – BLR

Ukraine’s Constitutional Court cancelled the 2004 constitutional amendments that restricted presidential powers and turned the country into a parliamentary-presidential republic. The ruling — prompted by a petition from more than 250 pro-Yanukovych MPs in the Ukrainian parliament — overturned the 2004 changes, introduced during of the Orange Revolution, in favour of the original version of Ukraine’s 1996 Constitution. “The court has ruled that the 2004 amendments to the Ukrainian constitution were unconstitutional due to violations of constitutional procedures in their examination and adoption,” said Anatoly Golovin, the head of the court.

The 2004 changes gave lawmakers the powers to appoint key ministers like the prime minister, defence minister and foreign minister on the recommendation of the president, although other ministerial appointments are the preserve of the premier. The amendments also increased the term of parliament from four years to five.

Under the 1996 Constitution, which has again entered into force as of Oct. 1, 2010, the president is elected for five years, nominates candidates for prime minister (for parliamentary ratification) and appoints cabinet ministers, has the right to dismiss government without parliamentary approval and can cancel any government resolution. The parliament, on the other hand, is elected for four years, is not required to form a majority coalition, can dismiss the government by vote of no-confidence and can override presidential decrees by two-thirds parliamentary majority, or 300 votes.

“The Constitutional Court decision means the Constitution of 1996 has entered into force with immediate effect and we are already living in a presidential republic,” said Ihor Kolyushko, former presidential aide to ex-president Viktor Yushchenko. “This was their goal [of the presidential administration] and they seem to have achieved it.” According to Kolyushko, the Constitutional Court decision implies elections already in 2011. “According to the 1996 Constitution, which is now again in force, parliament is elected for four years, meaning there should be elections in March 2011.”

Opponents of Yanukovych say that the ruling is part of an attempt to make the country more authoritarian. “The court has discredited itself. This decision borders on an abuse of power,” said the deputy head of Yulia Tymoshenko’s parliamentary opposition faction, Olena Shustik. Yanukovych, meanwhile, called on all branches of political power to observe “the rule of law” and accept the decision. Speaking in Yalta on Friday, the president said that “Ukraine was and remains part of the common European democratic space.” The country’s leadership “will move along the path of a broader social dialogue and legitimate solutions,” Itar-Tass quoted him as saying.

The country’s “further constitutional transit” will be linked only with stronger democracy and local self-government, Yanukovich said. He also promised that human rights and freedoms would be guaranteed.

Article – BBC – October 1st, 2010

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