Russia and the whole Eastern Europe are observing the last days of the US presidential campaign with great interest. Barack Obama and his challenger, Mitt Romney, represent an opposite approach to the problems of the region.
In 2009 the now outgoing president launched the “reset” policy in order to restore the relationship with the Kremlin after the war in Georgia. During his campaign the candidate of the Republicans has promoted Russia to “number 1 geostrategic foe of the United States”.
So, the question is: if Romney wins, will Europe come back to the Cold War epoch?
The answer is negative. First of all, even if Russia is considered a “resurgent” power by the experts it has finally lost the status of superpower held by the Soviet Union until 1991. At the moment, it has a more limited weight in the world’s political, economic, and military affairs.
Moscow is no more a hated enemy, as it was for four decades in the 20th century. It is a useful ally in places like Afghanistan, but also a partner, who has often criticized the Western positions on issues like Syria or Iran, and an energy supplier to the US strategic reserves.
In short, Russia is not a threat for Washington or the European Union as it was the Soviet Union. Today’s challenges in the era of the globalization are completely different from those of the past.
Mitt Romney killed two birds with one stone. He used that old fashioned definition, because he simply wanted to attack Obama and its foreign policy, not Russia, that remains – anyway in elderly American people mind – an adversary.
Barack Obama promised the Russians to be more “flexible” after the elections. In 2009 he started a new period in the bilateral relationship, but he did not invite Moscow to join from inside the regional anti-missile Shield in the future controlling Headquarters.
That would represent the decisive recognition of the successful end of the Russian democratic evolution which began in 1991. Former Kremlin’s European satellites, now US allies, are still hesitant to make that historic step. Protests in Moscow and the repression of the dissent will further delay any other openings.
Nonetheless, in these four years there have been positive changes in the US-Russian relationship. Moscow and Washington signed the nuclear arms control treaty in 2010 and this year the White House has supported Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization.
Vladimir Putin has recently described Barack Obama as “a genuine person” who “really wants to change much for the better”. The Russian leadership, including Dmitry Medvedev, has good personal relationship with him and, if it were able to vote the Kremlin would choose Obama.
But if Romney is elected president it will not be a catastrophe. From the internal political perspective Romney’s victory would guarantee president Putin a useful adversary determined to subvert the state of rule in the Motherland and former USSR. And it would be easier to justify the astronomically expensive 10-year rearmament plan for the armed forces ($770 billion), especially now when the economic crisis is narrowing and social problems are becoming  more serious every day.
Giuseppe D’Amato