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Efforts by some countries to weaken their currencies to stimulate growth are “especially worrying,” Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting in Washington. International policymakers failed to narrow their differences and Brazil warned that a “currency war” was under way. While the United States criticized China for undervaluing the yuan, officials from emerging nations blamed low U.S. interest rates for flooding them with capital. Global economic recovery is significantly slowing as the effect of anti-crisis stimulus measures. A further slowing of economic growth in the second half of 2010 and 2011 is a cause for concern shared by many experts.

The BRIC countries “have agreed on a position that exchange rates aren’t themselves a problem,” Deputy Finance Minister Dmitry Pankin said. “Rather, they are a consequence of deeper processes, such as tendencies to save, to invest, of the investment climate.” Capital “fluctuations” may also pose a risk for Russia, Pankin added.

 After the IMF meeting the first measure taken by Moscow was to move away from managing the rouble toward a free-float. The Central Bank widened the so-called floating corridor it uses to guide the national currency against a basket of dollars and euros and abolished a wider band set during the credit crisis to “increase flexibility” of the exchange rate. This decision potentially allows for more volatility but gives the bank the ability to target inflation rather than the exchange rate.

“The more flexible rate of the rouble is not linked to any kind of devaluation race but rather is aimed at minimising or eliminating the use of interventions by the Central bank,” Alexei Kudrin explained. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said that the rouble was in an “optimal position” and that he didn’t expect the currency to weaken or strengthen “excessively.” The rouble’s value was a major concern for the government and ordinary Russians at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis as it tumbled to lows that raised the spectre of Russia’s 1998 financial meltdown.

According to Kudrin, to ensure stable growth in 2011 Russia needs oil prices above $60 per barrel, although the country’s economy is less vulnerable than those of developed markets. This level is 21 percent less than this year’s average price. The Urals blend, Russia’s benchmark for oil exports, has risen 7.3 percent to $82.31 per barrel this year. It averaged $76.08 during the period and dropped to a low of $67.31 on May 25, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Russia is less vulnerable than other countries,” Kudrin told journalists. “Developing economies are as a whole better off, have more optimistic outlook.” However, substantial uncertainty remains and that if the situation in developed countries deteriorates it would hurt emerging markets. “This would impact energy producers, metal producers, trade, capital outflows,” said Russian Finance Minister.

Moscow feels safe. Reserves jumped $6.7 billion to $501.1 billion, the Russian Central bank said. It’s the first time the reserves have broken $500 billion since mid-October 2008, a month after the collapse of U.S. brokerage Lehman Brothers triggered the global credit crisis. Russia reduced its reserves from a record $598.1 billion at the beginning of August 2008 to $376.1 billion in March 2009, the lowest since at least January 2008. The Central Bank buys and sells foreign currency to manage the rouble and prevent swings that hurt exporters and used the reserves to engineer a “gradual devaluation” of the currency between November 2008 and the end of January 2009, as the global economic crisis and credit crunch hit.

Officially Euros account for 41 percent of Russia’s reserves, while dollars constitute 47 percent, British pounds — 10 percent, Japanese yen — 2 percent, along with a small amount of Swiss francs. Only China and Japan have larger reserves than Russia.

The modernization process in Ukraine will take place within three areas, stated the Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine, Borys Kolesnikov. The first direction presupposes business infrastructure development in Eastern Ukraine including modernization of airports and construction of high capacity runways as well as construction of exhibition centres and conference centres up to the world standard.

The second direction will comprise the development of agriculture in Central Ukraine. The government is determined to increase the volumes of corn growing virtually twofold, up to 100 million tons per year, by means of offering economic incentives in the agricultural sector.

Finally, the third direction will cover the tourist infrastructure development in Western Ukraine and Crimea.

 Targeted modernization projects will also contribute to radical changes in the vital for the country areas, said Vladyslav Kaskiv, the Head of the Working Group for National Projects of the Committee on Economic Reforms. Their range is rather broad: from the creation of a transmission system for liquefied gas up to providing the new generation of Ukrainian schoolchildren with Internet access. Contrary to the Russian approach, the Ukrainian projects will be implemented not at the expense of the state funds but according to business models at the expense of the private investors.

 YES, Yalta, October 2nd, 2010.

Aleksander Kwasniewski, former President of Poland and the Chairman of the YES Board. “You must have a clear picture what role you want to play in this globalised and versatile world. This should change your approach and the way you view things. Globalisation is a process we are not able to stop. We are tightly intertwined with it”.

1. The choice between the West and the East is not so important for Ukraine. “Every Ukrainian president has to find balance between Russia and the EU. The complication is what kind of balance should it be, how to define and describe it”.

 2. Ukraine and Ukrainians must believe in their own strength and not to reject European prospects, because euro-integration of Ukraine is an objective demand of our time. “Ukrainians have to believe in their own power and future, because you have potential. We can discuss whether we need Turkey in EU for a long time. But at some moment we will ask the Turks to join the European Union. So, eventually the time will come when we will ask you, Ukrainians, to join the EU. we need you”.

At the same time this doesn’t calls off the need for reforms Ukraine must go through: “We have a lot of work to do. One has to solve problems and fulfill commitments. What is of great importance – you need to create civil society. You need nation’s activity, intelligent voter and intelligent electorate, which control the system and vote consciously”

 YES, Yalta, October 2nd, 2010.

7th Yalta Annual Meeting – September 30 — October 3, 2010 Livadia Palace, Yalta, Ukraine

Ukraine and the World: Re-Thinking and Moving On

 Thursday, September 30

20:30 Welcome Reception

 

Friday, October 1

09:00 — 09:30 Conference Opening
   
Welcoming remarks:
Aleksander Kwasniewski, President of Poland (1995-2005), Chairman of the Board of YES
Victor Pinchuk, Founder and Member of the Board of YES
   
Moderator:
Chrystia Freeland, Global Editor-at-Large, Reuters News

 

09:30 — 10:15 Ukraine in a Changing World
   
Viktor Yanukovych, President of Ukraine

 

10:15 — 11:00 Europe’s Future in a Time of Challenges
   
Bronislaw Komorowski, President of the Republic of Poland

 

11:30 — 12:40 The New Global Order and Its Key Players
   
Stefan Füle, European Commissioner for Enlargement and Neighborhood Policy (opening remarks)
Alexander Babakov, Deputy Speaker, State Duma of the Russian Federation
Kostyantyn Gryshchenko, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine
Javier Solana, fmr. High Representative of the EU for Common Foreign and Security Policy, Member of the Board of YES
Wang Jisi, Dean, School of International Studies, Peking University

 

12:40 — 13:00 Euro 2012 — A Chance for Business to Contribute to Ukraine’s Modernisation: Kharkiv as a Case Study
   
Alexander Yaroslavskiy, General investor and coordinator of Kharkov for Euro 2012, Owner and President of DCH, President of FC Metalist

 

14:20 — 15:30 The Crisis and Economic Re-Building
   
Alexei Kudrin, Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation (opening remarks)
Iryna Akimova, First Deputy Head, Administration of the President of Ukraine
Anders Aslund, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Olivier Descamps, Managing Director, Turkey, Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia, EBRD
Andrey Kostin, President, VTB Bank

 

15:30 — 16.00 What Happened to Our Economies and How To Avoid It Happening Again? (TV Link)
   
Martin Wolf, Columnist, Financial Times and Fred Bergsten, Director, Peterson Institute of International Economics

 

16:00 — 17:00 Climate Change — A Global Threat Ignored in Ukraine
   
Kofi Annan (opening speaker, via TV link)
Inger Andersen, Vice President for Sustainable Development, World Bank
Nikolai Dronin, Moscow State University
Andriy Klyuev, First Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine
Joschka Fischer, Adviser, Nabucco Project

 

17:00 — 17:30 How to Overcome the Crisis and Build Sustainable Economies (TV Link)
   
Larry Summers, Director, National Economic Council of the United States

 

20:00 — 20:45 Speech: The United States and the Global Shifts of the 21st Century
   
William J. Clinton, 42nd President of the United States

 

Saturday, October 2

09:00 — 10:00 The Global Economy and Ukraine
   
Mykola Azarov, Prime Minister of Ukraine
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

 

10:30 — 11:15 Building High-Tech Economies — an Eastern Silicon Valley and Wall Street?
   
Viktor Vekselberg, Chairman, Renova Group; Coordinator, International Innovation Center “Skolkovo”
Alexander Voloshin, Head of the Working Group on Creating an International Financial Center in the Russian Federation

 

11:15 — 12:00 Modernising Ukraine — From Strategy to Implementation
   
Borys Kolesnikov, Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine
Vladislav Kaskiv, Head of Working Group for National Projects, Committee on Economic Reforms
Kirill Dmitriev, President, ICON Private Equity

 

12:00 — 13:00 Ukraine: Should it Move East And/Or West?
   
Elmar Brok, MEP, Foreign Policy Spokesman of the EPP in the European Parliament
Sergei Glaziev, Secretary General, EurAsEc Customs Union Commission
Leonid Kuchma, President of Ukraine (1994-2005)
Marek Siwiec, MEP, Member of the Board of YES

 

15:00 — 16:00 The Energy Challenge
   
Yuri Boyko, Minister for Fuel and Energy of Ukraine
Leonid Grigoriev, President, Institute for Energy and Finance, Moscow
Alan Riley, Professor, City University of London

 

16:00 — 17:00 Paths to Ukraine’s Future — What Change Do We Need?
Carl Bild, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sweden
Volodymyr Lytvyn, Speaker of the Parliament of Ukraine
Serhiy Tyhypko, Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine
Arsenyi Yatseniuk, MP, Leader of “Front of Change”

 

17:00 — 17:30 Concluding Session
   
Aleksander Kwasniewski, President of Poland (1995-2005), Chairman of the Board of YES

 

Video 1, Video 2.

Ukraine’s Constitutional Court cancelled the 2004 constitutional amendments that restricted presidential powers and turned the country into a parliamentary-presidential republic. The ruling — prompted by a petition from more than 250 pro-Yanukovych MPs in the Ukrainian parliament — overturned the 2004 changes, introduced during of the Orange Revolution, in favour of the original version of Ukraine’s 1996 Constitution. “The court has ruled that the 2004 amendments to the Ukrainian constitution were unconstitutional due to violations of constitutional procedures in their examination and adoption,” said Anatoly Golovin, the head of the court.

The 2004 changes gave lawmakers the powers to appoint key ministers like the prime minister, defence minister and foreign minister on the recommendation of the president, although other ministerial appointments are the preserve of the premier. The amendments also increased the term of parliament from four years to five.

Under the 1996 Constitution, which has again entered into force as of Oct. 1, 2010, the president is elected for five years, nominates candidates for prime minister (for parliamentary ratification) and appoints cabinet ministers, has the right to dismiss government without parliamentary approval and can cancel any government resolution. The parliament, on the other hand, is elected for four years, is not required to form a majority coalition, can dismiss the government by vote of no-confidence and can override presidential decrees by two-thirds parliamentary majority, or 300 votes.

“The Constitutional Court decision means the Constitution of 1996 has entered into force with immediate effect and we are already living in a presidential republic,” said Ihor Kolyushko, former presidential aide to ex-president Viktor Yushchenko. “This was their goal [of the presidential administration] and they seem to have achieved it.” According to Kolyushko, the Constitutional Court decision implies elections already in 2011. “According to the 1996 Constitution, which is now again in force, parliament is elected for four years, meaning there should be elections in March 2011.”

Opponents of Yanukovych say that the ruling is part of an attempt to make the country more authoritarian. “The court has discredited itself. This decision borders on an abuse of power,” said the deputy head of Yulia Tymoshenko’s parliamentary opposition faction, Olena Shustik. Yanukovych, meanwhile, called on all branches of political power to observe “the rule of law” and accept the decision. Speaking in Yalta on Friday, the president said that “Ukraine was and remains part of the common European democratic space.” The country’s leadership “will move along the path of a broader social dialogue and legitimate solutions,” Itar-Tass quoted him as saying.

The country’s “further constitutional transit” will be linked only with stronger democracy and local self-government, Yanukovich said. He also promised that human rights and freedoms would be guaranteed.

Article – BBC – October 1st, 2010

 Roman Catholic and Orthodox theologians reported promising progress  in talks on overcoming their Great Schism of 1054 and bringing the two largest denominations in Christianity back to full communion. “There are no clouds of mistrust between our two churches,” Orthodox Metropolitan John Zizioulas of Pergamon said at a news conference. “If we continue like that, God will find a way to overcome all the difficulties that remain.”

Archbishop Kurt Koch, the top Vatican official for Christian unity, said the joint dialogue must continue “intensively” so that “we see each other fully as sister churches.” The churches split in 1054 over the primacy of the Pope. Benedict XVI has close ties to the spiritual leader of the Orthodox, Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew in Istanbul, and hopes to meet Russian Patriarch Kirill, who has shown great interest in better ties.

Reuters – Vienna

Ashgabat continues its policy of diversifying export routes for its raw materials. “This station will make it possible to increase supplies of gas to the Turkmenistan-China pipeline”, Turkmenistan President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov said, speaking at the Bagtyayrlyk launch ceremony. “It can pump 60 million cubic meters of gas a day”, he added. China is set to become the largest buyer of gas from Turkmenistan over the coming years as a pipeline linking the two countries, through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, reaches full capacity. Deliveries began earlier this year and are expected to hit 40 billion cubic meters in 2015. The opening came as China and Russia signed a raft of energy deals, including on increasing natural gas exports to Beijing. Gazprom, Russia’s state-controlled gas producer, said it expects to be able to supply China with 30 billion cubic meters of gas annually starting in late 2015.

“In addition to supplying Russia, China and Iran, we are also taking concrete measures to accelerate progress in the construction of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan and India pipeline in concert with the member countries of this large-scale project,” Berdymukhammedov said. At the end of August Turkmenistan and Afghanistan signed an agreement on construction of the Trans-Afghanistan (TAPI) gas pipeline for the transfer of Turkmen gas to Pakistan and India which have expressed interest in buying up to 70 billion cubic metres annually, by the end of this year. The TAPI project, first put forward in 1995, was promoted by the country’s late leader, Saparmurat Niyazov, in the early 2000s. It secured strong support from Washington after a U.S.-led offensive ended the Taliban’s five-year rule over Afghanistan in 2001. Turkmenistan has previously estimated the cost of the project at $3.3 billion. Natural gas to fill the pipeline could be drawn from the massive South Yolotan deposit, currently under development, and the existing Dovletabad field.The planned pipeline would have initial capacity for 33 billion cubic metres a year and would run for nearly 2,000 km (1,250 miles), including 735 km across Afghanistan and another 800 km through Pakistan. Despite receiving financing from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) the project, whose route would take it through conflict torn-Helmand and Kandahar in Afghanistan and Quetta in Pakistan, has been held up by security problems.

Earlier, on May 21st, Berdymuhammedov unexpectedly signed a decree stating that companies from Turkmenistan will build an internal East-West gas pipeline allowing the transfer of gas from the biggest deposits in Turkmenistan (Dowlatabad and Yolotan) to the Caspian coast. The East-West pipeline is planned to be around 1000 km long and have a carrying capacity of 30 bn m³ annually, at a cost of between one and one and a half billion US dollars. Construction of the pipeline is to be financed by the Turkmengaz company; it will begin this June and last five years.

Some experts say that this decision is probably motivated by Ashgabat desire to maintain its influence on which direction its gas is exported from the Caspian coast; gas can flow from there to Europe (for example, along the projected trans-Caspian route), to Russia (along the planned Caspian route), or to Iran (along the already existing Korpeje-Kurt Kuy route). By not taking a final decision on which way to export its gas from this new pipeline, Ashgabat can extend and heat up the rivalry between Russia and the West for Turkmenistan’s gas.

Giuseppe D’Amato

See also EuropaRussia February 3rd, 2010.

The Prosecutor General’s Office has given Polish authorities 20 additional volumes of documents concerning the Soviet execution of Polish officers at Katyn in 1940, the RIA Novosti news agency reports. In May Moscow sent to Poland 67 volumes of the case. The Polish commission insisted, however, that those volumes did not contain any new information concerning the case.

“We are handing over additional 20 files from case #159, which partly fulfills the Polish request,” senior Russian Prosecutor Saak Karapetyan said. The files contain additional lists of Polish servicemen held captive by the Soviet secret police, interrogation and forensic reports, medical records, burial certificates and other data related to the massacre.

In the 1990s, Russia handed over to Poland copies of archive documents from the top-secret File No.1, which placed the blame solely on the Soviet Union. In September 1990, Russian prosecutors also launched a criminal case into the massacre, known as “Case No.159.” The investigation was closed in 2004.

Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance, which has been investigating the case since 2004, has proposed including Russia’s materials into its own investigation.

“Sevastopol belongs to Ukraine, but hardly anyone here is Ukrainian. Two rival fleets ride at anchor in its majestic harbour. Two rival flags fly from its public buildings… the city has gone from being a sort of Stalinist Sparta, austere and warlike, to a seaside Babylon of pizzerias and nightclubs…. Ukrainians force Russians to turn their back on their language and change their names”.

Article – Daily Mail (UK)

See also : Кому принадлежит Севастополь? EuropaRussia;  Ucraina-Russia. Sebastopoli alla Flotta del Mar Nero per altri 25 anni EuropaRussia.

  Vitaliy Barvinenko, Oleksandr Budzherak, Andriy Verevsky, Ihor Vorotniuk, Valeriy Hatsko, Oleh Heiman, Hennadiy Zadyrko, Valentyn Zubov, Volodymyr Ivanenko, Valeriy Kamchatny, Volodymyr Kapliyenko, Yevhen Konstantynov, Yuriy Kruk, Petro Kuzmenko, Vitaliy Kurylo, Oleh Malich, Sviatoslav Oliynyk, Hryhoriy Omelchenko, Volodymyr Pylypenko, Valeriy Pysarenko, Yuriy Poluneyev, Ihor Savchenko, Ivan Sidelnyk, Raisa Sorochynska-Kyrylenko, Mykola Traiduk, Oleksandr Feldman, Oleh Cherpitsky and Oleksandr Shepelev were expelled from the BYT  (Yulia Timoshenko) – Batkivschyna faction.

 They sided with the coalition formed by President Viktor Yanukovich.

Article – BBC – September 21st, 2010.

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